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Moody's: Next LOGCAP deal could mean some companies see 'minimal activity levels'

Story by Marjori Censer

Moody's Investors Service says LOGCAP V, scheduled for award in the spring, will be a "substantial opportunity," but the large number of potential awardees could mean some see a lower level of work.

The report, released today, said the program could be a significant boon for some winners. For instance, DynCorp International generated more than 40 percent of its revenue from 2011 to 2013 from the program, Moody's says.

"LOGCAP IV incumbents KBR, [DynCorp], and Fluor very likely submitted bids for LOGCAP V," Moody's writes. "In addition, PAE announced that it had bid on LOGCAP V through a recently formed joint venture with a subsidiary of Parsons, a global engineering services firm."

"A range of other companies likely bid as well, but the program's global capability requirement and other demanding performance qualifications probably confined the pool of bidders to around 10 or fewer," the report adds.

Moody's anticipates seven initial awards -- one per regional command and a separate one for Afghanistan. The report projects DynCorp or Fluor will win the Afghanistan award.

Moody's details five possible award scenarios -- one with as many as six awardees, two with five awardees and two with four.

"If the Army brings five or six contractors onto the LOGCAP V program, some of those contractors may achieve only minimal activity levels, income and experience," the document states.